Specter Switches Parties

The bombshell news that Senator Arlen Specter has defected from the GOP to become a Democrat sent Washington pundits and bloggers scrambling. What does it mean? How important is this?

The most obvious change in the Senate is that when and if Al Franken is ever seated for Minnesota, the Dems will have 60 votes. Technically, that makes the Dems filibuster proof. However, even if Specter votes with Dems most of the time, conservative Democrats Evan Bayh of Indiana and Ben Nelson of Nebraska often do not. Filibusters still will be possible.

At the Washington Monthly, Steve Benen writes that the switch reveals “a Republican Party in steep decline, driven by a misguided ideological rigidity.” If there is no room in the GOP tent for a right-of-center Senator like Specter, exactly who does the GOP represent these days?

It’s assumed that Specter, who is up for re-election in 2010, switched parties primarily to avoid a defeat in the Pennsylvania Republican primary election next year. Recent polls have shown him trailing his main challenger, former Rep. Pat Toomey, who lost to Specter by only 1 percentage point in 2004. GOP party loyalists have been loudly hoping for the much more conservative Toomey to win the primary, even though Toomey is much less likely to win the general election. Republicans these days would rather be ideologically pure than popular.

Unfortunately, Specter says he will not revisit his support for a GOP filibuster of the Employee Free Choice Act. Without Specter’s support, the EFCA — which would simplify union organizing and force employers to negotiate in good faith — has little hope of passage in this Congress. It was assumed Specter threw EFCA under the bus — he had supported similar legislation in the past — as a sop to right-wing Republicans, which he no longer needs to do.

Another critical question: Will this affect Specter’s plan for a Fairness in Asbestos Injury Resolution bill? Specter’s bill, last introduced in 2005, would require that asbestos-related injuries be compensated through a trust fund rather than through courts. Obviously, this is a bill of critical interest to victims of asbestos-related disease, such as mesothelioma. Although the bill is inactive at the moment, it will be interesting to see if Specter resurrects it this year in exchange for, perhaps, his vote on a health care bill? We’ll see.

April 28, 2009
Barbara O’Brien

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